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模型与数据双轮转动业内判断：物理AI“ChatGPT时刻”最快两年_我的网站

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A | 封面新闻记者欧阳宏宇在本届WAIC上，人工智能加速落地，从屏幕里大步走向物理世界，继文本生成、智能体AI后，“物理AI”概念受到关注。

Former President Donald Trump is set to surrender to authorities in Georgia on Thursday afternoon, even as a stream of his closest allies report to face charges in the case that accuses them of a sweeping racketeering scheme to overturn the results of his 2020 presidential election loss in the state.

“I WILL PROUDLY BE ARRESTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN GEORGIA,” Trump posted to his social media site on Wednesday morning.

Trump’s booking will mark the second time this month that the twice-impeached former president was made to face charges related to efforts to overturn the results of a free and fair vote. He is expected to be arraigned in the coming weeks. In total, Trump is staring down 91 state and federal charges across four indictments – the other two related to his mishandling of classified documents and hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges thus far and strenuously maintained his innocence.

Trump, the leading Republican presidential candidate, appears to be counting on his surrender to create a media circus outside the Fulton County jail – as his arrests in New York, Florida and Washington, D.C., did – in an attempt to undercut any challengers who may have a breakout moment at the first GOP presidential debate Wednesday evening. Trump has said that he doesn’t plan to debate in the primary due to his record-setting lead in the polls.

But the atmosphere will likely be business as usual inside the jail, where Sheriff Pat Labat has maintained that Trump will be treated like anyone else accused of a crime by a grand jury. That likely means he will be fingerprinted and photographed – the latter of which was not required during his three previous arrests.

Earlier on Wednesday, four of his 18 co-defendants in the Georgia case surrendered, including Atlanta lawyer Ray Smith, Trump campaign attorney Kenneth Chesebro, former Georgia GOP chairman David Shafer and Cathy Lathom, the former GOP chairwoman for Coffee County and a member of the Georgia Republican Party's executive committee.

Conservative lawyer John Eastman and bail bondsman Scott Hall surrendered on Tuesday. Trump’s former personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani is expected to surrender Wednesday afternoon.

The 11 others have until Friday at noon to surrender or Willis will issue a warrant for their arrest.

One of the most high-profile co-defendants, former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, petitioned to delay his surrender date until a federal judge rules as to whether the charges against him in the Georgia case can be moved to a federal court. That hearing is slated for Monday.

But Willis rejected that request, saying in response that she would grant no extensions.

“I gave 2 weeks for people to surrender themselves to the court,” she wrote. “Your client is no different than any other criminal defendant in this jurisdiction. The two weeks was a tremendous courtesy. At 12:30 pm on Friday I shall file warrants in the system.”

Ahead of his surrender, Trump painted himself as a martyr to supporters and repeated on social media and in campaign fundraising emails unfounded claims that the 2020 election was “rigged and stolen” and rife with “fraud, irregularities and cheating.”

In reality, the former president lost in 2020 by some 11,779 votes in Georgia but has insisted that hundreds of thousands of votes in his favor had gone uncounted due to ballot stuffing, faulty voting software and voter fraud related to mail-in ballots, out-of-state voters and voters who are deceased. The state’s GOP establishment, including Gov. Brian Kemp, has long assured him that the count was fair and accurate.

。当人工智能加速由虚向实，随之而来的问题是，这一AI落地的新场景会呈现何种演进路径？其搭载的AI大模型是何种形式？距离机器人的“ChatGPT时刻”还有多久？ 7月19日，在2026世界人工智能大会“智启具身论坛2026：迎接物理AI智能涌现”上，多位业内人士和行业专家就物理AI智能涌现的条件与路径分享了观点。

B | 在专家看来，只需不到5年的时间，机器人“ChatGPT时刻”就要到来，在此之前，则需要上亿小时级别的物理数据支持。模型与数据飞轮是物理AI持续进化的关键在AI产业主线聚焦大模型之后，业界正渐渐形成共识：下一阶段AI不会停留在生成内容，而会进入真实环境，理解空间、预测变化并完成行动。归结起来，这就是物理AI受到关注的核心动因。那么，该如何发展物理AI？智元合伙人、高级副总裁、具身业务部总裁，觅蜂科技董事长兼CEO姚卯青在现场分享称，物理AI的挑战在于，必须同时打通表征与闭环这两条路线。前者是对世界的抽象和压缩，人类所有的认知、判断、理性全是以表征为基础的；后者是智能体与环境进行持续的交互，从计算的角度来看，它包含了输入、算法、输出、评价、迭代这样的循环，从生物学角度来看，它就是从一种从感知到理解、决策、行动、环境反馈的一个完整闭环。在姚卯青看来，要推动物理AI的发展，主要靠模型与数据两方面作用。“模型决定起点，数据定义终局，二者相互作用将产生‘飞轮效应’；当飞轮转动，智能涌现只是时间问题。

C | ” 具体在模型侧，他以智元构建的三阶段训练架构为例谈到，在该架构中，分为“预训练—后训练—持续学习”三个步骤，即推动视觉语言动作模型（VLA）与世界动作模型（WAM）两条技术路线持续演进，并向统一的世界推理动作大模型（WRAM）迈进，同时从算法、仿真、真机训练层面打通规模化迭代闭环。简而言之，就是让机器人既能边看菜谱边学着直接上灶台炒菜，又要学着理解火候、食材特性，还要反复总结经验，最终培养出一个“既懂原理又会实操”的机器人大厨。在数据侧，则要依托MEgo系列采集终端、治理平台与真机数据集等，构建覆盖数据采集、治理、训练和部署回流的全链路物理AI数据基础设施，推动真实场景数据持续反哺模型进化。

D | 据悉，目前，这套模型与数据协同迭代体系已在真实产业场景中获得验证。“我们相信物理AI智能涌现不是会不会来的问题，它是一定会到来的。”姚卯青预判到，智能涌现只是时间问题，其一定会在行业突破数据墙、表征墙、闭环墙之后，形成这样一套可优化、可泛化、可进化的物理世界AI的进化系统。数据缺口巨大但智能涌现“一定会来” 数据缺口“上万倍”，业内判断：2到5年迎来机器人ChatGPT时刻对于机器人的“ChatGPT时刻”何时会到来，专家普遍认为，至少需要两年时间，如果发展进程顺利，也不会超过五年时间。

E | 其关键在于数据。腾讯首席科学家、腾讯Robotics X实验室主任、福田实验室主任张正友谈到，由于具身智能到最后本质上要跟物理世界交互，因此交互数据是必不可少的。这些数据在一定程度上会产生飞轮效应，即不仅是成功的交互，即便是失败的交互也是格外宝贵的。 “收集数据时放到预训练下，未来的部署时间会越来越短，最后实现零成本的新场景任务复现。”谈及飞轮效应之下，训练数据的构建形式，Dyna Robotics联合创始⼈兼⾸席科学家⻢也骋认为，不同的数据可以采用“金字塔组合”形态，即顶层高质量部署数据+中层海量真机数据+底层更海量的互联网数据。 AI初创公司Physical Intelligence 的研究科学家任⾄意也认同，能直接复现任务的真机数据“可回放”，但多种来源数据尽可能扩大本体多样性的构成。在他看来，挖掘训练数据下一个非常大的底座是互联网。事实上，目前行业的共识是，训练具身智能的数据缺口巨大。姚卯青透露，据测算，需要1亿小时级别数据才能够让机器人掌握对物理世界通用运行规律的理解。而要达到开箱即用的效果，则需要70-80%零样本成功率。

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Published on:06:29:08